129742939379687500_405Abstract: economic growth stabilized, CPI inflation exceeded expectations, carefully easing of monetary policy, Huijin cut large proportion of dividend from the banks in early February futures extend rise since January.
Value of a share is still available, but Outlook worries still exist, and the twists and turns and the European debt crisis, under the influence of multiple factors, strong shock in the second half. First, back toTaking and summary in early February, the futures rebound in continuation since January 6, rose pattern renders shocks, as of February 14, the futures contract closed at 2519.6 points in the month, up 43.6 points, or 1.76%. Its typical characteristics: average daily total position of 53,243 hand compared with last month, while the average daily value fell, but market inflows will stillActive and present both sides of agglutination, daily fluctuations in exchange rate in 6.00-9.00 interval, days of active trading in the market has improved. Affect the first half of February futures trend mainly has following several points: first, in January PMI50.3%, 0.2% from the rebound, show manufacturing growth momentum remains strong, reflecting economic growth momentum is more robustSecond, under the influence of the Lunar New Year holiday, expected January CPI rose by 4.6% Super market, cautious monetary policy easing, cut the deposit rate time delay; third January 738.1 billion yuan in new Yuan lending, per cent less $ 288.2 billion, below market expectations; four is Huijin has agreed in principle to cut its holdings of large banks in dividend this year 5%, In support of the banks ' ability to increase profits retained capital; five Premier speech from starting in the first quarter, and fine tuning to boost the stock market, futures rebounded to a high of 2575.6 in the near future. In late February, is a continued rebound in early or high turbulence? From the policy point of view, CPI exceeding market expectations, and housing regulation will lead to a cautious easing of monetary policy; mobileFebruary open market central ticket expires only 12 billion yuan, and does not expire is to buy back, Central scale tickets expire and repurchase over $ 126 billion in January plunged more than 90% per cent from yesterday Shibor rates maintained a stable trend
buy runescape items, overnight repurchase rate to 7 days period only about 1 basis point of the fluctuation, shows short-term funds in the periodStabilizing international, United States in January growth in retail sales less than expected, raising fears; Moody's downgrade rating of the six countries such as Italian, Portuguese, Greece second round of assistance to save variables, or heat up the European debt crisis. OECD composite leading indicators show that in the United States, led by the developed world is out out of the economic slowdown of the last for several months, but China, the euro area situation remains grim,Prospects are not changed.
In General, the fundamental internal and external troubles eased, but market sentiment remains uncertain, or strong turbulence structure in the second half. Second, market trends and concerns (a) economic situation began to improve in the developed economies and European Economic Outlook uncertain on February 13, the Organisation for economic cooperation and development (OECD) published composite leadingIndex (Composite Leading Indicators), reflecting its 34 Member States last December leading index of economic activity rose to 100.4, which is the index rose for the first time since the February 2011 (after adjustments). Indicates that the developed countries under the leadership of the United States/Japan, from several months of slowdownGet over it, there turn. But, euro-indicators, 99.3, respectively, lower than the value 100 long-term trends, that China, the euro area is still not optimistic about the future. (OECD economic alert General 4-6 months in advance, according to the projections, first quarter of 2012, China's economy is still not optimistic. ) Is of concern, recently for the euro(Greece, and Spain) debt set expires, currently Greece debt negotiations, reforms have struggled, the market fears. In view of the debt crisis is likely to expand, deepen and increased the risk of the European debt crisis and related financial institutions, rating agencies lowered again the eurozone economy's credit rating. On February 12, p and Fitch downgraded Spain several financial institutions ratings; 214th, Moody's warned the British, French, Austrian downgrade risk at the same time, and to lower Italy, and Portugal, and Slovakia, and Slovenia and Malta six ratings. Short-term leading indicator showed that signs of economic transition, to the good. Manufacturing PMI data came from the world's leading economies, since last December PMI "lockstep" after the rebound of January PMIThen Li. For measuring global manufacturing confidence JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.8 again from December. China continued to back up to 50 above the dry line, show signs of recovery in manufacturing. Although the European manufacturing industry is still in a Contracting State, but in Germany manufacturing driven by, also falling fast rebound, manufacturingSigns of recovery. (PMI is a short warning indicator, is 1-6 month.
) Over short and leading early-warning indicators show that global economy bottomed out, there are good signs, but further observations, the euro area is still needed, it was "uncertain". Note: in 2005, since the China PMI was very good to forecast economic activity in China, more and more managementLayer, investor attention. As you know, market economy also has some early warning role.
By study found that since 08, PMI and stock indexes higher trend, overall trends with consistency. (Ii) are repeated but not the downward trend in inflation mainly affected by Chinese new year seasonal price effects, such as low temperature and freezing weather, January CPITimes higher. Food prices continue to be major factor in CPI rises. According to statistics, in January, consumer prices rose by 4.9%. Urban rose 4.8%, rising rural 5.2%; 10.3% food prices, non-food prices rose 2.6%, consumer goods prices rose 5%, rise in services prices 4.6%. VisibleAnd food lead to CPI exceeding expectations.
Although CPI mainly under the influence of the lunar new year, CPI repeatedly coupled with the recent global liquidity under easing commodity prices again, and raised a number of concerns of voice, domestic easing is expected to weaken in the short term. According to the relevant monitoring display, under the influence of demand factors after the Spring Festival, Festival short chonggao pork prices in recent daysBack down track, pig prices have decreased for 3 weeks after Spring Festival.
Therefore, reasonable, expected 2012 CPI continued to fall in February, fell back to less than 4%, and main factors of inflation is no longer a problem index. (C) funds into a critical before the Spring Festival, the Central Bank of central banks in continuous reverse repurchase, scale up to 400 billion. After the year, CPIOccurs repeatedly, the Central Bank out of caution, not cut reserve rates. But only recent Central Bank are small repo, liquidity provision of about 300 billion hedge market tensions. Central Bank data showed that in January, M2 increase and there is a balance of about $ 1.2 trillion worth of deposits increase, excluding cash flow amount added 907.1 billion yuan (included in the M2 but excluding deposits)And taking into account the financial deposits increased by $ 351.8 billion in the month (included in the deposit but not included in the M2), still have a gap of more than 600 billion dollars in the month, broad money (M2) increases to increase mass departure from the deposit. According to a research report that the part turned to interbank deposits, some flows into the stock market. The relatively abundant liquidity in the January, stock indexes continued knotSupport a reconfiguration of the rebound. At the same time, a-shares value gradually gain market recognition
runescape items for sale, all money into the city. Pension-related operational agencies are developing relevant rules can't wait to enter the market; the Commission call upon boot bank financial plan more for the secondary market value of long-term investments and investment; industrial capital net increase of 5 weeks in a row, holdings of listed company history rare; meetingGold agreed to its stake in ICBC, China Construction Bank and Bank of China cut 5% three 2011 cash dividends, but increase in disguise. Latent overseas funds into the stock market, sing a backhand long. Money tracking and monitoring bodies, Trojan in January, the United States investors were net buyers of 494 million dollars in China ETF, to the highest level since October last year. Even Korea Bank said meterBuy Chinese stocks in the second half. And rally continuously stimulate retail passion, killed the market. According to the latest data showed that last week (February 6), Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges added stock accounts 158,000 households, compared to the previous week (124,400) increase of 33,600 households, an increase of 27%. Although IPO financingKeep, but all funds into the stock market, incremental funds much greater than demand, financing and financing significantly reduce the relative pressure. Also worthy of note is that although the probability of bank deposit rate reduction has decreased, but interest rate cuts expected. Allegedly, some tend to lock loans when interest rates of bank loans, this is different from the previous floating loan interest rate, indicate that financial institutions worried that lower interest rates lead to loan poorLower earnings.
The other party also reflects, as a new round of global monetary easing, the Central Bank is likely to choose the right time to cut interest rates. (Iv) technical: broken up specification from the technical form of view, arrange up-day moving average is long, MACD divergence, RSI above 50, and wire break through October 2010 fall channel,On the back above the 60-day moving average line
cheap runescape items, Outlook bullish.
Second, since the beginning of January, due to air their differences increased futures rebound were volatile, but low points higher than that of a callback at a time, callback only touch on the 10th this week averages, this early and short-lived rebound is different, indicating the current bull market forces dominated control movements as a whole. Third, the conclusions and suggestions for actionTaken together, pending the European debt crisis, China's economy is still weak, but the Economic Outlook has improved, "head tree spring" scene. Under the surge of funds into the stock market indices in the road, has taken the lead in responding to economic prospects. Based on the above macroeconomic fundamentals and technical, we expect that the main contract to run in the near future: 2600-2440. BecauseProspect of economic change has yet to be confirmed, and high market or closed jiancang profit investment light cartridge is recommended. Sunset gold in Lai Qingzhu Zhang ruida futures online statement: Gold-line reproduced above, does not indicate that confirm the description, for investors ' reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investor operations accordingly, at your own risk.
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