129773932938593750_124Securities Times reporter Jia Zhuang China economy, extremely cold in the spring of this year, has published statistical data, most of them lower than the market expected. Judging from the three major demands, consumption, investment and net exports are weak shows aggregate demand in a vulnerable state.
Therefore, running ahead of first-quarter economic data, research institutions are cautious. Economic migrationFlatted on the other data appeared
tera power leveling, most notably credit data.
The first two months of this year, new credit amount significantly less than the average of the past few years, in traditional lending season, credit contraction occurs unexpectedly, credit demand is considered the main reason for the real economy. Small micro-enterprise financing is still very difficult, what credit demand is there? Due to banksCustomers demand shrinking, from regulatory control over loans can be seen. According to the China Banking Regulatory Commission on strengthening the supervision of loans risks introduced by files, Bank shall not
tera power leveling, in principle, the new loans this year, regulators will impose cap on loans to ensure that loans falling instead of rising.
Even some extensions of loans granted, the conditions are very strict. There areCan show economic weakness in other data, such as a decline in profits of State-owned enterprises, the first two months of this year, State-owned enterprises ' realized profits fell 10.9%
tera gold, central enterprise gross profit fell by 11.5%; 1 ~ February power data over the same period last year plunged nearly 6%, in addition to Spring Festival factor, slowing growth in the real economy are important reasons��
Economic growth, most worried is that the Government, but rather cold economic situation, the Central Government has just recently "calm", was most likely is, structure to true. In fact, changing the mode of economic development is a very old topic, who appeared in nearly 20 years ago in the central document, the reason why so many years to complete, it is becauseToo much better.
Economic growth along the March, various economic readings in health that even rationally recognize the need of adjustment, it is difficult to translate into action. Today is totally different, successful completion of transformation of mode of economic development, on the Chinese economy is able to continue to maintain a relatively rapid growth rate, so the urgency of the tasks referred to the unprecedented highDegree.
Structure can be popularly understood as: economic growth should rely more on domestic demand, domestic demand is more dependent on consumption, this process is necessarily accompanied by pain, need to pay the price, economic growth is one of the shorter time. The past, real estate investment has played an important role in stimulating domestic demand, aggressive real estate regulation will inevitably weaken its pulling effect, inWill be reflected in the economic data. Government investment projects like railways, highways, and other construction projects, in China out of the financial crisis during the great credit to, but also objectively worsened the structural contradictions in China's economy.
Last year, these projects have convergence should be a measure of restructuring. Falling investment and external demand-led economic growthDecline, a Government initiative to control factors, effects of economic decline of long-term growth potential in China, Government should have fully estimated.
"Twelve-Five" growth plan for the next five years is expected to be 7%, just on the ends of two sessions, lowering the forecast for economic growth this year was transferred to 7.5%, these are out of the room for economic growth down. In fact notBad news, data for the first two months of this year there were some bright spots. Headline purchasing managers ' index (PMI) data recovery for 3 consecutive months, although the specific data is still weak.
Industrial output data showed that industrial production is smooth slow, driving force of economic growth remain good. Other expected indicators show economic boom may be lowPoint, the economy is likely to slow in the second quarter rose. According to the people's Bank of China has announced a quarterly survey of bankers report, bankers index of monetary policy and macro-economic confidence in the third quarter of last year after the bottom two quarters in a row bounced, indicating the role of monetary policy to fine-tune the economy level, and are likely to continue to play a role in thisImpact, bankers ' prospects for future economic growth is also expected to improve. Term rapid growth to the rapid growth in China's economic transition process is inevitable, the ideal is to make the transition as smooth as possible, the so-called "soft landing", and in order to achieve this process without escort of macroeconomic regulation and control policy. As far as total policies, prices fell back to continue monetary easingPolicies created conditions, follow-up central banks continue to cut reserve requirements or even a rate cut can be expected. Online statement Gold: gold online reprint of the above content, does not indicate that confirm the description, for investors ' reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investor operations accordingly, at your own risk.
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